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Hermann Simon, Danilo Zatta - I trend economici del futuro

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Saranno i trend del futuro a rivoluzionare le imprese.

Nell’attuale contesto economico le leve e le dinamiche del business sono esposte a un cambiamento costante e radicale. La recente crisi globale e il rapido sviluppo dei paesi emergenti stanno influenzando gli andamenti dell’economia: è necessario individuare gli strumenti utili per cogliere con successo le sfide della modernità. Nei prossimi anni il mondo delle aziende sarà soggetto a notevoli mutamenti: comprendere questi trend, individuarne le caratteristiche e le possibili evoluzioni rappresenta la vera sfida attuale. E ancora più importante, quale significato assumono queste tendenze per il management e la gestione aziendale? Nel nuovo libro "I trend economici del futuro. Come cambieranno le imprese nel prossimo decennio" Hermann Simon e Danilo Zatta presentano ai manager sei trend che stanno influenzando l’economia nella molteplicità dei suoi aspetti cogenti e quindi il suo successivo sviluppo. In maniera prospettica e scientifica gli autori mostrano alle aziende il percorso ideale da seguire per adeguarsi al nuovo scenario e prepararsi al meglio alle prossime sfide. I trend essenziali evidenziati dagli autori sono: globalizzazione accelerata, maggiore influenza della politica, maggior legame fra management e capitale, comportamento dei clienti in costante evoluzione, interconnessione totale e spostamenti tettonici nel mondo dei prodotti.

A proposito di quest’ultimo tema la recente crisi ha acutizzato un trend: la maggiore pressione competitiva nel segmento premium nel quale operano molte imprese italiane. Le cause di questo malessere sono spesso riconducibili a cattive pratiche portate avanti dalle aziende, indipendentemente dal ciclo economico: inaccurate strategie di pricing che si traducono in prezzi troppo alti o troppo bassi, che penalizzano entrambi la marginalità. Nel segmento premium emerge spesso una certa arroganza nei confronti di nuove tecnologie o di competitor provenienti da Paesi emergenti che genera tipicamente miopia e lentezza di reazione rispetto alle minacce provenienti da player esterni al proprio segmento di mercato. Sono tuttavia proprio tali innovazioni o cambiamenti che, se ignorati, possono mettere a repentaglio la continuità aziendale. Imprese che operano nel segmento premium si devono confrontare anche con il trend ultraeconomico. Si tratta di un trend che ricalca quello del low cost, in quanto la strategia aziendale è quella di proporre prodotti significativamente più economici rispetto ai quelli di riferimento sul mercato. Il trend ultraeconomico va, tuttavia, oltre il low cost al quale si è abituati in Europa, in quanto più che di prezzi bassi si tratta di prezzi stracciati, o meglio “ultra bassi”. Il segmento a prezzi ultra bassi è nato in Asia. Grazie alla rapida crescita economica molte persone che in passato non avevano alcun potere d’acquisto oggi sono possibili clienti. Si formano così nuovi, vastissimi mercati per prodotti ultraeconomici che crescono in maniera esponenziale. Il management delle imprese italiane deve pertanto chiedersi se e come intervenire in questo segmento. Chi si confronta consapevolmente con cambiamenti ha maggiore probabilità di assicurarsi crescenti profitti in futuro: in primo luogo l’analisi e l’ottimizzazione della strategia di prezzo può rafforzare il proprio posizionamento nel segmento premium. In secondo luogo il segmento ultraeconomico è caratterizzato da tassi di crescita molto elevati.

Oggi più che mai è indispensabile adottare un approccio dinamico. Chi riuscirà ad anticipare i sei trend aziendali del futuro facendosi trovare preparato ne trarrà beneficio. Simon e Zatta sottolineano la necessità di non sottovalutare i suddetti andamenti. Le analisi esposte nella pubblicazione forniscono al lettore gli strumenti necessari per discernere il contesto economico in maniera critica e costruttiva. L’obiettivo è supportare il lettore in questa riflessione fornendogli una chiave interpretativa autentica sull’evoluzione degli scenari economici globali. Solo i manager che riusciranno ad anticipare e valorizzare le principali tendenze saranno in grado di neutralizzare potenziali minacce per le proprie imprese e di beneficiarne in maniera profittevole.

Fabio Traversa

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